Polio Vaccine Forecasting Dashboard 2027–2031

The GPEI Polio Vaccine Forecasting Dashboard provides five-year projections of global, regional and country-level polio vaccine demand, covering national immunization programmes, supplementary immunization activities, outbreak response and stockpile requirements. Developed under the Polio Vaccine Security Framework, it supports medium-term supply planning.

The 2027–2031 edition updates the original 2026–2030 forecast with refreshed datasets and programme assumptions. The underlying methodology remains unchanged.

Important Note on Interpretation

The forecast uses the 2026 national immunization schedules as a fixed baseline for projections covering 2027–2031. Although national schedules may change during this period, the model does not attempt to predict these changes or their implications for vaccine demand. It also does not project the introduction of new vaccine products (e.g. virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines and nOPV1/3).

The forecast reflects the assumption that bOPV cessation will take place in Q1 of 2031, as well as the GPEI’s target to eliminate cVDPV2 by the end of 2029, after which no additional nOPV2 requirements are currently included in the forecast. However, other polio vaccines are expected to replace bOPV, and global stockpiles of OPV types 1, 2 and 3 will be maintained for potential outbreak response following cessation. Future vaccine requirements, including product types, quantities and timing, remain subject to programme and policy decisions and are not yet fully reflected in the forecast. Consequently, projected demand should not be interpreted as a comprehensive estimate of actual vaccine requirements following bOPV cessation.

Explore the Dashboard

The dashboard offers two complementary views, including a new Trends tab introduced in response to user feedback:

• Landscape: An interactive world map displaying projected demand by country for a selected year, accompanied by country rankings and vaccine-level demand figures.
• Trends: Charts showing projected demand by vaccine and demand type across 2027–2031, alongside a table of annual requirements by country and WHO region.

Using the filters: The left-hand panel allows users to select a High, Medium or Low scenario, WHO region or country, vaccine product and demand type. Multiple selections are possible, with the visualizations updating accordingly.
Requirements not allocated to individual countries, including global stockpile and pre-cessation requirements, are grouped under “Not country-specific” and included in global totals.

Methodology, Inputs and Assumptions

The forecast combines five components of polio vaccine demand. Different methods and assumptions are applied to each component, as summarized below.

National Immunization Programme

National immunization programme demand is calculated using:

Target population × Scheduled doses × Vaccination coverage × Wastage adjustment

Inputs include UN World Population Prospects, national immunization schedules in place in 2026 (held constant as a modelling assumption), WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC), and wastage assumptions of 15%, 10% and 5% for low-, middle- and high-income countries, respectively.

Three vaccination coverage scenarios are applied:

1. High (100% coverage): Assumes full coverage of target populations.
2. Medium (Highest IPV1 coverage in 2021–2025): Uses the highest national IPV1 coverage achieved during the previous five years.
3. Low (2025 IPV1 coverage): Uses the latest available national IPV1 coverage estimates.

National immunization programme dose requirements vary across these scenarios according to the vaccination coverage assumptions.

For bOPV, national immunization programme requirements are projected through the first quarter of 2031, consistent with the projected cessation timeline.

bOPV Pre-cessation Requirements

Pre-cessation supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) aim to increase population immunity to poliovirus types 1 and 3, particularly in areas with immunity gaps, and reduce the risk of outbreaks associated with bOPV withdrawal.

The projected requirements cover 2030–2031, reflecting the programme’s current timeline for bOPV cessation and the need to strengthen population immunity ahead of withdrawal.

GPEI programme experts developed High and Low estimates of vaccine requirements for these activities. The Medium estimate is calculated as the midpoint between the High and Low estimates. These are paired with the corresponding national immunization programme coverage scenarios in the dashboard.

bOPV Outbreak Response

Projected bOPV outbreak response requirements are developed by GPEI programme experts based on programme planning assumptions concerning potential outbreak response needs. These estimates cover 2027–2028 only, with no additional requirements currently projected for subsequent years. These requirements remain constant across scenarios.

Supplementary Immunization Activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Projected bOPV requirements for supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in Afghanistan and Pakistan are developed by GPEI programme experts based on anticipated campaign needs. These projections extend through 2029, based on the programme’s current target of interrupting wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission by the end of 2026 and associated campaign planning assumptions. These estimates remain constant across scenarios.

Global nOPV2 Stockpile

Global nOPV2 stockpile requirements are estimated by GPEI programme experts in conjunction with a poliovirus transmission modeller. These estimates reflect anticipated stockpile requirements for responding to type 2 poliovirus outbreaks and do not vary across scenarios.

The projections reflect the GPEI’s current target of eliminating circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) by the end of 2029, after which no additional nOPV2 requirements are currently included in the forecast. However, an OPV2 stockpile will continue to be maintained for potential outbreak response following certification, and the absence of projected requirements beyond 2029 should not be interpreted as indicating that OPV2 will no longer be needed.

How the High, Medium and Low Scenarios Work

The dashboard’s three scenarios combine two sources of variation:

• National immunization programme demand: Varies according to vaccination coverage assumptions.
• bOPV pre-cessation demand: Varies according to expert-derived High and Low dose estimates, with the Medium estimate calculated as their midpoint.

The High coverage scenario is paired with the High pre-cessation estimate, the Medium coverage scenario with the Medium pre-cessation estimate, and the Low coverage scenario with the Low pre-cessation estimate.

The other three demand components — bOPV outbreak response, bOPV SIAs in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and global nOPV2 stockpile requirements — remain unchanged across scenarios.

Assumptions and Limitations

The projections are indicative estimates, not confirmed procurement quantities or manufacturer-specific demand commitments. Actual requirements may differ due to epidemiological developments, changes in vaccination coverage, programme implementation and future policy decisions.

The dashboard will be updated as new data and programme requirements become available.

Contact and Feedback

Please provide any feedback or questions to David Woods (woodsd@who.int).